2025-11-28
Today was the day after thanksgiving which means the market would close at 2 PM EST instead of 4 PM EST. My plan was to buy SMX, a gapper that was up >100%.
I hesitated in the first 30 minutes and didn’t buy the dip. The MACD had crossed over the signal line, the histogram was in the green, the RSI Divergence had just plunged into the middle of the stream (not overbought or oversold) and yet I did nothing with this information. I froze. I was all set to make the order when a scary red candle dropped; I immediatly assumed some institution was shorting the stock. However, it turned out to be a false flag; just an indication that someone, somewhere dumped a bunch of stock because they had thought that it had already reached the top of the mountain. In a few hours, it would become apparent that this had been merely a molehill.
I was forced to shrug it off and wait for a breakout (a green candle closes higher than the First 30 minutes high/low). After about an hour it had but this time I jumped the gun and didn’t wait for the MACD to cross all the way over the signal line; I didn’t think it mattered so I bought ($50.00/share) it and then there was an immediate sell-off.
It fwll down about -$600! Not a great feeling.
I had to take my cat to the vet at 11 AM EST and it was already 10:30 AM and the right opportunity just hadn’t presented itself; so I ended up breaking my own rules. I left my house just feeling sick and hoping things would somehow work themselves out.
However, before I left, I adjusted the stop loss to just below the top of the 30-minute high/low box (the breakout, once confirmed, became the new support). My thinking was: if things got this bad, there was no hope of it ever coming back so I might as well cut my losses. I also set the take-profit at just below 60 (psychological resistance).
Looking at the chart now it appears the “Perfect Buy” was at 10 AM before the MACD and RSI confirmations occured. This is an important lesson. The “Perfect Buy” would have been impossible, because it happened before any indicators even confirmed the direction of the market.
When I came home, my take profit had executed at $58.87 and my shares had thankfully sold off for +$9.87/share.
It wasn’t a perfect execution by any means, but it did confirm that the rules (if followed) do indeed work.
Lessons Learn
- Don’t hesitate after the morning dip, if the signs are right take action.
- Don’t try to “will” the perfect buy into existence, even though this worked out for me today it was not the right call.
- Trading without evidence is gambling. Getting lucky isn’t a skill you can rely on.
- Wait for at least 2 confirmation signals. MACD & RSI, not just one or the other; not just candles or volume. Charts look very different when you come back to them a few hours later. Bad choices you make in the moment look much worse later on because all the correct choices look obvious in hindsight.